3rd Quarter winners are the Super Bowl losers

08 Feb 2019 - Daniel Formella

In any sports game, momentum will play a big role in determining which team wins and which team loses. Momentum can include things like scoring runs or crowd noise. In the Super Bowl however, it appears that whichever team has more momentum during the 3rd quarter is the eventual loser of the whole game. For our purposes,  “momentum” will be defined as scoring the most points. Therefore, we will look at the point trends within the 3rd quarter and see who ended up winning the actual game.

 

Super Bowl LIII:

1 2 3 4 Total
NE 0 3 0 10 13
LAR 0 0 3 0 3

 

Super Bowl LII:
           1 2 3 4        Total
PHI 9 13 7 12 41
NE 3 9 14 7 33

Super Bowl LI:

           1 2 3 4        OT Total
NE 0 3 6 19 6 34
ATL 0 21 7 0 0 28
Super Bowl XLIX:

           1 2 3 4 Total
NE 0 14 0 14 28
SEA 0 14 10 0 24
Super Bowl XLVII:

1 2 3 4 Total
BAL 7 14 7 6 34
SF 3 3 17 8 31

Super Bowl XLVI:

1 2 3 4 Total
NYG 9 0 6 6 21
NE 0 10 7 0 17

Super Bowl XLV:

1 2 3 4 Total
PIT 0 10 7 8 25
GB 14 7 0 10 31

As the data shows, for 7 out of the past 9 Super Bowls, the team that has scored the most points in the 3rd quarter has ended up losing the actual game. Like me, you may be wondering why this is the case. My hypothesis is what I like to call the cycle of momentum. There is a constant momentum battle between teams to gain the upper hand. One team will “figure out” the other first (scoring more points initially), then the opposing team will “figure out” what that team is doing (score more points in the 3rd quarter), and finally the first team will “re-figure out” what to do and win in the 4th quarter. Obviously, this full game trend doesn’t always follow in our data. The only consistent thing is the loser outscoring the winner in the 3rd quarter.

You may notice that I skipped both of the Super Bowls (LI and XLIX) that the Denver Broncos were in because their games did not follow the 3rd quarter pattern. Both the winners in those matches outscored the losers in the 3rd quarter. Not only that, but after Super Bowl XLV, the trend occurs with much less frequency. This leads us to ask some questions. Has the entire 3rd quarter trend simply been a recent coincidence? Did I waste my time making this article? I am losing all credibility right now? Maybe. But it is fun to act like a sports analyst and look for trends in games to make myself feel like an expert tactician.